A scoreboard for your own mind

Every other template organizes work. The Forecaster's Ledger measures the reliability of your judgment. Record predictions with a stated confidence; as they resolve, it scores them, draws your calibration curve, and hands you back the exact factor by which to shrink your future estimates so your confidence finally matches reality.

The engine

Predictions

Calibration by domain

Using it

Log a prediction with an honest confidence; when it resolves, the Ledger scores it, sharpens your calibration curve, and refines the one number that matters — the factor by which your confidence should be shrunk to match reality.

Your first ten predictions

  1. State something about the future in one falsifiable sentence.
  2. Set your honest confidence, 0–100, and tag its domain and a resolve-by date.
  3. When it resolves, mark it true or false. The Ledger computes its Brier score automatically.
  4. Read your calibration by domain — where your judgment is sharp, and where you are deluded.
  5. Read your correction coefficient and shrink your next estimate by it. Repeat until your confidence tells the truth.

Universal mode: pure formulas, no paid Notion AI. One scheduled reminder surfaces predictions past their resolve date so nothing goes un-scored. Example predictions are seeded — replace them with your own.

What it is, and what it is not

An instrument of judgment. It measures how reliable your own predictions are — it does not make predictions for you, and it is not a guarantee of anything.